By The Athletic NHL Staff
May 22, 2024
The NHL’s final four is set.
The Florida Panthers continue their quest to play in a second straight Stanley Cup Final on Wednesday night as they open the Eastern Conference final against the New York Rangers, and Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers kick off the Western Conference final on Thursday night against the Dallas Stars.
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The Stars opened the postseason as The Athletic NHL staff’s favorite to win the Cup. Are they still our top pick? And who do we see taking the East now that our pre-playoff pick, the Carolina Hurricanes, has been eliminated? What about Conn Smythe favorites?
Here are the results of our staff survey after the second round, with analysis, critique and trolling from national writer Sean Gentille, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and NHL betting expert Jesse Granger.
Eastern Conference final: Florida Panthers vs. New York Rangers
| Percent of vote | Panthers | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
4 games | 0.0% | 0.0% |
5 games | 6.5% | 3.2% |
6 games | 29.0% | 9.7% |
7 games | 22.6% | 29.0% |
Total | 58.1% | 41.9% |
Gentille: Dang, almost 60 percent of the staff doesn’t know that the Rangers won the Presidents’ Trophy. That’s apparently the only excuse for not picking them in every single game they play.
Goldman: There’s only been one Game 7 in the East so far, and it feels like we could get another here — the first for both the Rangers and Panthers this year.
Granger: This should be one heck of a series, and the picks here agree. More than 90 percent of the staff have this going at least six games. The Panthers have been the best five-on-five team in the playoffs, while the Rangers have been excellent at both special teams. Which will win out? I picked the Rangers from the start so I’m sticking with them.
Western Conference final: Edmonton Oilers vs. Dallas Stars
| Percent of vote | Oilers | Stars |
|---|---|---|
4 games | 0.0% | 0.0% |
5 games | 0.0% | 12.9% |
6 games | 3.2% | 58.1% |
7 games | 9.7% | 16.1% |
Total | 12.9% | 87.1% |
Gentille: I’d say this seems lopsided, but I’ve also watched Stuart Skinner over the past couple weeks, so … maybe it’s not lopsided.
Goldman: Definitely hard to give Edmonton a ton of love here with the goalie matchup in mind. But if the Oilers’ power play can dominate, maybe we’ll have a series.
Granger: The Stars are the deeper team, and controlled even-strength play against both the Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche. Considering Edmonton has an expected goal share below 50 percent at five-on-five (against weaker teams in the Vancouver Canucks and Los Angeles Kings), that is likely to be the case in this series. The Oilers are going to need a ton of power-play help to win this. Luckily for them, that’s certainly in the realm of possibilities.
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Stanley Cup winner
Gentille: I picked the Stars in October, and I’ve picked them ever since, so I can’t be mad about this one — it’s just a big number.
Goldman: Same here. Based on the picks for this and the Round 1 series, everyone feels like the Panthers are bound for another Stanley Cup Final loss.
Granger: We’ve seen teams win Cups on the back of a hot goalie. We’ve also seen talented, deep teams win one without an elite goalie. The Rangers have both, with Igor Shesterkin hitting his peak at the exact right time of year.
Conn Smythe winner
| PERCENT OF VOTE | PRE-1st | Pre-2nd | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
0.0% | 12.5% | 22.6% | |
9.4% | 6.3% | 19.4% | |
9.4% | 12.5% | 16.1% | |
9.4% | 3.1% | 16.1% | |
3.1% | 6.3% | 12.9% | |
3.1% | 18.8% | 9.7% | |
0.0% | 9.4% | 3.2% | |
9.4% | 9.4% | 0.0% | |
3.1% | 6.3% | 0.0% | |
12.5% | 3.1% | 0.0% | |
9.4% | 3.1% | 0.0% | |
3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% | |
0.0% | 3.1% | 0.0% | |
0.0% | 3.1% | 0.0% | |
9.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
6.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
3.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
3.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
3.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
3.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Gentille: Wyatt Johnston’s play dipped a little against the Avs. I get why he’s in the lead here — he’s been the best forward on the consensus Cup favorite — but this race feels pretty open.
Goldman: To the surprise of no one, if the Oilers can pull this off, it will be on McDavid’s back. Goalie appreciation is strong here, too, and for good reason. Shesterkin has been the best in the world for much of 2024 — and over the past few postseasons. And Jake Oettinger has rallied after a tough go in the regular season and a shaky start to the playoffs.
Granger: I’ve picked Shesterkin the entire way, so I’m certainly not jumping off that bandwagon now. The fact that Dallas has three legitimate candidates here shows just how balanced the Stars are. It’s reminiscent of the Golden Knights last year, where there were four players it seemed like could win Conn Smythe.
How have we done so far?
First-round series predictions
| Percent of correct picks | Team | Team and games |
|---|---|---|
Panthers over Lightning in 5 | 75.0% | 6.3% |
Bruins over Maple Leafs in 7 | 62.5% | 37.5% |
Rangers over Capitals in 4 | 96.9% | 21.9% |
Hurricanes over Islanders in 5 | 87.5% | 46.9% |
Stars over Golden Knights in 7 | 84.4% | 50.0% |
Avalanche over Jets in 5 | 59.4% | 9.4% |
Canucks over Predators in 6 | 59.4% | 18.8% |
Oilers over Kings in 5 | 100.0% | 37.5% |
Second-round series predictions
| Percent of correct picks | Team | Team and games |
|---|---|---|
Panthers over Bruins in 6 | 100.0% | 59.4% |
Rangers over Hurricanes in 6 | 43.8% | 15.6% |
Stars over Avalanche in 6 | 59.4% | 6.3% |
Oilers over Canucks in 7 | 93.8% | 3.1% |
(Photo: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
